A man who is seen so overwhelming untrustworthy by Tories, the oldies, the rich, and pretty much everybody else is going to lead the Tories to an epochal defeat so long as Labour aren’t led by somebody as toxic as Jeremy Corbyn. This polling feeds in to other aspects of polling and anecdata as Tom Newton Dunn reveals today.
On the electoral question, the public numbers aren’t great, but they certainly could be worse. Labour’s eight-point lead should be far higher against a mid-term government presiding over an economic quagmire.
Privately, Johnson’s own numbers are quite a bit worse. One party official who has seen Conservative Campaign Headquarters’ internal polling says the prime minister’s favourability rating is minus 35 per cent. Among women aged 35 to 54, a key demographic, it’s minus 70 per cent.
Anecdotal evidence from MPs who have been back in their constituencies over the half-term recess is grimmer still. They are disturbed by the growing number of angry emails in their inboxes and the vitriol they now receive from constituents and friends. “I’m sick of going to dinner parties and being embarrassed about being a Conservative MP,” one said. They won’t have been comforted by the boos that Johnson and his wife, Carrie, received from the monarchist crowd outside St Paul’s on Friday — a scene that would have been unimaginable six months ago.
If the Tories are doing so badly with oldies and women aged to 35 to 54 then they should expect defeat at the next general election.
The most intriguing thing about this rebellion is that so many ardent Brexiteers are supporting it, I think they know the numbers for Boris Johnson are heading to Corbyn at the 2019 general election territory and that might damage the Brexit settlement, that makes Boris Johnson expendable.