Since it was founded in 2004 the Conservativehome website has proved to be a good indicator of the mood amongst party members so this afternoon’s survey with 55% wanting Johnson out is not good news for the PM less than 2 hours before his fate is decided by the parliamentary party.

One assumes that MPs will be aware of the mood amongst members in their own constituency and this could affect their decisions.

In the betting a 2022 exit is the current favourite for the year of Johnson’s exit

Mike Smithson