Betting on the Wakefield by-election has been a bit boring because it is blindingly obvious that LAB is going to retake the seat that it lost at GE2019 and the current odds of 98% are simply not tempting.
The Tories, the incumbent, should be the runner up and that leaves 3rd place which could be interesting and on which Smarkets have a new market.
The LDs are putting all their efforts into Tiverton and are not active here. You can see them winning in Devon but losing their deposit in Wakefield.
That leaves Reform, the Greens, an independent and the Yorkshire Party who are represented by former-PBer, David Herdson.
The latter’s party polled 13% in Wakefield in a recent mayoral election and could win the race for third. I’ve had a small bet on David getting into third place at 3/1