The LDs claim to be just 2% behind in Tiverton & Honiton
The LDs in the Devon by-election have issued internal polling based on thousands of separate contacts with voters in the constituency which they claim has them just 2% behind the Tories. This has the Tories on 46% with the LDs on 44%.
It should be noted that the party issued similar data at this stage ahead of Richmond Park (2016), Brecon & Radnorshire (2019), Chesham & Amersham (2021) and Shropshire North (2021). In each case the “polling” understated what they actually achieved on the day. All these four seats were LD gains from the Tories.
At Shropshire North just before Christmas, their “poll” suggested they were 4% behind – they won the seat with a 15.6% margin over the Tories.
When the LDs go “full gas” in a constituency they throw everything at it with dozens of activists from all over the UK traveling to the seat each day as well as phone-banking from locations all over the UK.
I should state that unlike all the recent four previous by-election gains I have yet to bet on the party simply because the odds do not offer good value.