But we are close to crossover
With everything else that is happening we have barely looked at the next general election betting and the latest position is in the chart above. The Tories are now down to a 51.55% chance for most seats with LAB not far behind.
From past and costly experience I’ve learned that long range general election bets should be best avoided except if they offer incredible value. Why tie up your money for nearly two years when just about anything could happen to change the political balance.
At the moment it is hard to see either Labour or the Tories winning a majority which means we could be in hung parliament territory. Maybe the Tories could run a campaign like at GE2015 warning of the danger of such an outcome using then SNP leader, Salmond, as the bogeyman. It worked then but would it be resonant in 2024?
The big thing in politics at the moment is the widespread dislike of Mr. Johnson. Will that still be the case as we get closer. The big thing to remember, of course, is that it is he, and he alone, who now chooses the election date.
Next Thursday we have the by-elections which look set to produce two Tory losses. To my mind it is the scale of the defeats could be a big factor.