It’s a 73% betting chance that Johnson will survive the year
I like this betting market because it is pretty straightforward and simply asks who will be Prime Minister on New Year’s Day 2023. As can be seen Johnson has made quite a recovery since earlier in the year when his position looked more doubtful.
These are the market rules:
This market relates to the person who occupies the role of UK Prime Minister at 12:00 GMT on 1 January 2023. Temporary or caretaker occupants will not count e.g. if someone has taken over the responisbilities of PM to cover for a period of illness or similar, that will not count for the purposes of this market.
It could be that on New Year’s day he might still be in post waiting for a leadership election to find his successor to be completed.
His position will be even stronger if he comes out of next Thursday’s by-elections not too bruised. Holding one of the seats would be a big boost or even keeping the margins of defeat right down if the Tories lose both.