Can that elusive CON poll lead come in June or July?
With the most recent Opinium survey having the CON lead down to just 2% it opens up a chance that a CON lead in June or July might just be worth a punt.
As I write Smarkets have 20/1 on a June Tory lead and given that Opinium should be reporting again next Saturday night then who knows?
None of the other pollsters have got that close and as can be seen, most of the recent polls have LAB 6-7% ahead. For July the current odds are 9.4. These are the market rules:
This market relate to the headline, rounded percentage voting figures for UK or GB general election voting intention polls from the named pollsters. This market will be settled as a winner if any of the following polling companies publicly report a headline voting intention lead for the Conservative party: Opinium, YouGov, Redfield & Wilton, Savanta ComRes, Survation, Deltapoll, Kantar TNS, Ipsos Mori or BMG.
Notice that Techne is not included on the list.