Quite simply a majority of 24,239 has never before been surmounted in a Westminster by-election. This is a huge hurdle for the LDs to overturn especially as they start in third place.
Even if this is reduced to just one vote on Thursday Johnson and his supporters will be able to claim a huge victory which will embolden them for the future. This would be in spite of the almost certain loss of Wakefield which is also on Thursday. A LAB victory there has been discounted from the moment the previous Tory MP was sent to prison and the polls have shown LAB leads of 20k+
There haven’t been any polls in Tiverton. On the betting markets, punters rate the LDs chances at 74%.