The LDs rarely lose when they go into a by-election “full gas”
The Smarkets Tweet hits the nail on the head. It is hard to recall Davey’s party not winning when they have been very competitive in a Westminster by-election.
They are helped by being able to attract hundreds of activists from all over the country when there is the sniff of victory. That certainly is what has happened ahead of tomorrow’s Tiverton and Honiton by-election.
This is why the betting markets made them tight odds-on favourite right from moment the by-election was called.
At Chesham and Amersham a year ago the betting opened with 20/1 being available right at the start. In many ways that was a much better prospect for the party than Shropshire North and tomorrow’s contest.
I’ve now been tempted by betting on them getting a majority of 3,000+.