What’s going to be the impact of tactical voting?
Perhaps the worst news for the Tories that could come out of today’s Westminster by-elections is Labour losing its deposit in Tiverton and Honiton while the Lib Dems lose there’s in Wakefield.
For undoubtedly much of the Tory success at the last general election was down to the anti-Tory vote being split in key constituencies.
If voters who are opposed to Johnson get smart and seek to maximise the effectiveness of their choice they will vote for Labour in Wakefield and the Lib Dems in Tiverton and Honiton. So a good vote for Labour in Devon is good news for the Tory defence.
To overcome the huge majority in Tiverton and Honiton the Lib Dems really need to capture as many former Labour voters as possible. In Wakefield the Lib Dems lost their deposit last time but it will be interesting to see if their share falls even further.
It is going to be an interesting night