A Johnson 2022 exit is now the betting favourite

A Johnson 2022 exit is now the betting favourite

The big problem the PM and his team have this afternoon is that yesterday’s by-elections were worse for the party than expectations. Inevitably the focus is on whether Johnson can survive.

He is indeed fortunate that there was a confidence vote on him two and a half weeks ago and under the current rules there cannot be another one amongst this parliamentary party until June next year. At the time of this month’s vote, cynics were suggesting that Number 10 had pushed for it to happen in order to avoid one in the immediate aftermath of the by-elections. Maybe or maybe not but the timing looks mighty convenient.

Let us remind ourselves that the main reason CON MPs gave Johnson the leadership two years ago was that he was seen as an election winner. That perception looks very different now.

A big problem is that the scale of the defeat in Tiverton and Honiton was well beyond even the most pessimistic expectations. My best bet was getting 6/4 on Wednesday on the LDs winning with a majority of more than 3k. The actual gap was 6,144.

Already a former CON leader, Michael Howard, has called on him to step aside and we have had one big resignation.

An interesting weekend for Tory MPs.

Mike Smithson

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