Punters far from convinced that Johnson is going
After the terrible by-election results for the Conservatives, many commentators are suggesting that the time is up for Johnson. Yet as the chart shows that although there has been an uplift in the betting chances of a 2022 exit it is still rated at just a 41% chance.
In the papers this morning there lots of theories about how Johnson will be going soon and how the exit would be effectively forced on him. The resignation of Oliver Dowsett is seen as being equally or even more important than what happened in Wakefield or the Devon by-elections.
Tory MPs seem to have got the clear message that kicking with Johnson the by-elections is a clear indicator that their electoral prospects if they stick with the current incumbent at number 10 are very limited indeed. If there is a fair degree of consensus amongst Conservative MP’s that without Johnson they would do better when they face their voters then the 1922 Committee would agree to another ballot.
This is all about self-preservation and what happened on Thursday only reinforces what their constituents are telling. The PM has become a huge electoral liability. At odds longer than evens betting on a 2022 exit is probably value.