Prior to the result in Tiverton & Honiton YouGov published the above polling analysis about the potential Tory losses in the South West of the United Kingdom and the result from Tiverton & Honiton will only exacerbate Boris Johnson’s problems.
It isn’t unkind nor unfair to describe the current cabinet is a cabinet of political eunuchs but if the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg and George Eustice start worrying about losing their seats then they might force Boris Johnson, after all it was a cabinet rebellion that forced out Mrs Thatcher in the winter of 1990, losing your seat will focus minds not just in the cabinet but the parliamentary party.
What really should alarm the Tories that unlike Chesham & Amersham, North Shropshire, and Tiverton & Honiton the South West is full of places where the Liberal Democrats have a recent history and infrastructure, something which could be crucial during a general election campaign when campaign resources are finite.
As Tory activists from 1992 to 2015 onwards will attest, once the Liberal Democrats gain a constituency they are bloody hard to shift, it was largely thanks to David Cameron’s brilliance that he took the Liberal Democrats from 62 MPs to 8 MPs.
David Cameron seemed uniquely placed to appeal to these Liberal Democrats seats whereas the way the Boris Johnson is governing he seems uniquely placed to ensure voters flock back to the Liberal Democrats. With the Blue Wall crumbling, and the Red Wall at risk, losing a plethora of seats in Celtic Fringe as well would mean a very bad night at the next general election for the Tories.