The news from Downing Street this morning about Boris Johnson’s intention has led to a huge shake-up of the next prime minister betting as the chart shows.
A big gainer has been Ben Wallace who has moved up from a 6.5% chance to 22% this afternoon. He was helped by some CON members’ polling from YouGov that had him ahead. The fieldwork for this was mostly before Johnson’s intentions were made known.
The other upward mover has been Deputy PM Raab following speculation that he might be a stand-in PM whilst the election to choose the next leader and PM takes place.
There is a huge amount of detail to be worked out over the timing of Johnson’s exit and the arrangements for the leadership election. As we recall Tory leadership elections fall into two parts – a series of votes by MPs to whittle down the number of contenders to two and then the membership ballot.
All the indications are that many Tory MPs want Johnson out sooner rather than later.