In the VI polling, there’s been a marked shift to LAB

In the VI polling, there’s been a marked shift to LAB

As can be seen from the Wikipedia table there has been a marked move to LAB with the four most recent surveys having the party with double-digit leads. This has been partly driven by a Tory decline and partly by LAB edging up.

The LAB/LD/GRN aggregate is now mostly at 60%+ – an important figure to bear in mind given the level of tactical voting that there has been in recent by-elections.

This could all change quickly once Johnson is out of the picture and we have a new Tory leader. There can be little doubt that he has been a serious drag on his party’s polling position.

What we are likely to see a lot of in coming weeks is named leader polling with those surveyed given different voting intention questions with different Tory leaders. These will likely flatter the most well-known of the Tory contenders because it becomes more about name recognition.

Tonight we should see the latest from Opinium which has been showing the smallest LAB leads.

Mike Smithson

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