The second coming of Boris Johnson?
The prospect of Boris Johnson returning for a second stint as Prime Minister fills me with a sense of foreboding that is only matched by when my girlfriend asks to borrow my mobile phone or laptop but we have to brace ourselves for those scenarios happening.
The Sunday Times isn’t alone in reporting that
Multiple sources claim [Boris Johnson] believes he will one day return as prime minister, like his hero Sir Winston Churchill, who had two stints in No 10. “He thinks whoever replaces him might be a disaster and we could be back here in a few years’ time having lost a general election looking for someone with the dynamism to propel the party back into power,” a Downing Street insider said. “He thinks he is that person.”
I have to admit I can believe that Boris Johnson believes that, I don’t think he spent his entire life wanting to be Prime Minister only to have be defenestrated after three years will want his total tenure as Prime Minister to be much longer than that. So how will it be possible for Boris Johnson to achieve this comeback?
- PM Liz Truss turns out to be as bad as many fear.
- She has fewer MPs backing her in final round of voting of Tory MPs (31.6%) than Iain Duncan Smith received in the final round of voting of Tory MPs in 2001 (32.5%) which means she has little support amongst the people who can oust her.
- Combining the above then Liz Truss could be the UK equivalent of Frederick V of the Palatinate so she could be ousted well before the next general election.
- Boris Johnson still retains significant support inside with both the Tory Party and the Tory membership, the former could could conspire with other leadership hopefuls to oust Truss before the next election and allow him to stand in the contest to replace Truss
Significant, if not insurmountable, obstacles remain against Boris Johnson becoming Tory leader and Prime Minister again
- Boris Johnson’s ratings are approaching Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings at GE2019, and they could get worse, who would want him back?
- Boris Johnson may choose not to be an MP very shortly, with that many children, ex wives, and a fetish for expensive but gaudy wallpaper and furniture earning money on the lecture circuit without the encumbrance of being an MP could be attractive for him.
- Boris Johnson may not be an MP very shortly because he’s been expelled from parliament and lost a recall by election if the Privileges Committee rules against him, especially as he will have to give evidence under oath.
- Liz Truss proves to be a fantastic and competent Prime Minister which leads to her and the Tory Party’s popularity soaring. (Stop sniggering at the back!)
Smarkets have a market on the Prime Minister after the next election and currently Boris Johnson is 38s and I’m not tempted, I might be tempted if the bookies put a market on the Tory leader at the next election and the odds are somewhere slightly north of that price.
TSE
PS – I’m assuming it is Truss but if you replace Truss with Sunak in this piece the logic still largely works.