Betting on a Tory poll lead in September
I have just had a bet at about 4/1 that the Tories will have a poll lead at some stage during September.
My reasoning is that a new arrival at number 10 is going to be dominating the news in the first part of the and there’s just a possibility that this could help the Tories improve their position in relation to Labour in one or two polls at least. This will be helped, of course, by the exit of Johnson who arguably has become a big negative for the party.
My bet is on Smarkets month of next Conservative poll lead market. The odds I got just over 4/1 seemed about right in terms of the chances of it happening.
Even if there is a Tory poll lead in the autumn the big question is whether it will be sustained but that is a different matter. My guess is that with Sunak or Truss things will be better for the blue team but it will still fall a long way short of the 12% GB vote lead of the last election