As voting starts Truss still the strong next PM favourite
The betting for next prime minister is still very much dominated by the YouGov polling of Tory members that came out nearly 2 weeks ago. This had Truss with a very clear lead of 19% and it is hard to see how Sunak can overhaul it
That was all before the TV debates and heightened media interest in the process to choose who will be Britain’s Prime Minister for when Johnson finally steps down in early September
Polls can, of course, be wrong and it can be challenging for a pollster to get a representative sample of members of a political party. Also we do not have any measure of the impact of the last fortnight but it is a very bold person at the moment who decides to risk money on the former Chancellor.
I’ve been sitting on my £20 250/1 Sunak bet which was placed in November 2019. This has enabled me to bet on Truss at very tight odds because I’m not going to lose money.
Let’s hope that YouGov run other members’ polls to see if there is any change.