A LAB lead varying from 1% to 14%

It is very hard to draw any conclusions from the most recent polling seen in the Wikipedia table above. The reason, of course, is the very wide differences the various firms are showing.

We have the UK’s most established pollster, Ipsos, which still uses the phone, reporting a 14% LAB lead while YouGov’s latest has it at 1%. One thing we are not seeing is “herding”.

I’ve been writing about polling for nearly two decades and I cannot recall another period when there was so much variation. I cannot offer an explanation

The Tory total seems relatively settled but the big variation comes with LAB where we have figures from 37% to 44% being reported.

Whatever by my calculations all the polls are pointing to Keir Starmer becoming PM. Whether there is a majority or not is a different matter

Mike Smithson