As PBers will know I have a sizeable bet on the Tories getting a poll lead in September because the new PM, presumably Truss, will be getting a lot of media attention and all the historical evidence points to replacement PMs at this stage in a Parliament leading to polling improvements for their party.
Thie is what happened after Gordon Brown replaced Blair in 2007 and when Major took over from Thatcher in 1990
Truss has one huge benefit and that is that she is not BoJo. There is also the novelty of someone else at Number 10.
The big questions are whether that poll lead will be sustained and whether it will be big enough for the Tories to get another majority.