Historically in American politics in the first midterm elections following a new President the party that does not control the White House does well in the Senate and House elections.These take place on November 8th

That is certainly happening this year in the betting on the House elections where as can be seen from the charts the assumption of punters is that this will be a relatively easy victory for the Republicans

If you want to bet on the composition of The Senate after the November the 8th elections remember that Betfair has a different definition of victory than the Smarkets exchange. The former only counts actual Democratic party Senators while Smarkets includes the two Senators who are not members of the party but who caucus with them.

There is still a long way to go and things can change. One thing that undoubtedly has improved the prospects for the Democrats has been the Supreme Court decision to reverse Roe v Wade thus making abortions more difficult. We are seeing from other elections that women are far more determined to vote and there have been higher turnout levels.

I am wondering whether the Dems could be good value for the House.

Mike Smithson