The Roe v Wade ruling has made the Midterms less predictable
Up to last month’s historic decision by the US Supreme Court to overturn the 1973 Roe v Wade precedent on abortion it did appear that the Republican party was going to take the House and the Senate in the November 8th mid-term elections.
The balance on the Supreme Court had been changed during the Trump presidency but no one really thought that Roe v Wade would be overturned in the way that it was.
Now it is looking less certain and on the UK betting markets, the Democrats are still favourite for Senate although the Republicans are seen by punters as the favourite to get a majority in the House.
Abortion has been one of the defining issues in US politics for decades and this all seemed settled by the judgement half a century ago in the Roe case.
The polling has most Americans disapproving of the SC decision with women feeling far more strongly about the issue than men. A big question now is how this will impact on November’s midterm elections. There are indications that this could be a turnout driver.