ConHome survey has Truss 32% ahead
However you look at this Liz Truss is now a near certainty to become the next Conservative leader and Prime Minister. Yet we will still have to wait for 3 weeks before we get the official declaration and then, no doubt, the trip to the Palace.
Yet she was only the third choice of MPs on the first ballot and even on the final count amongst the parliamentary party she trailed Rishi Sunak by some distance.
There is nothing she can do about this and the reason this is happening is because the party rules, brought in by William Hague, give the final say to the membership.
A possible challenge for her is that over the past few weeks in seeking to get the support of the membership she has perhaps had to say things and make commitments on issues which she would not have done if MPs had had the final say. Get ready for a number of U turns.
I am far from convinced that these prolonged leadership races which seem to go on and on are healthy thing for a party. The problem is that if you involve the membership then you have to factor in the time to produce and send out the ballot packs and then of course allow sufficient time for these to be returned and counted.