Of the 40 seats that R&K include in the poll the Tories gained 39 at GE2019. The other seat polled, Hartlepool, was picked up by ‘Johnson’s party in the by-election last year.
What is clear is that this is very much the battleground for the next elections though if all 40 were to flip the Tories would still have an overall majority but a very narrow one.
On top of that the Tories are going to face fierce attacks defending all 6 seats held in Scotland and 30 key “blue wall” targets where the LDs could be in with a chance. These are in the main seats which voted Remain and where the electorates have a disproportionate number of graduates.
The next election is going to be very challenging for Truss – assuming she takes the prize next month.
My worry for the Tories is that a lot of the rhetoric that we have seen in the leadership campaign could be troublesome when faced with a mass electorate. What is right for Tory members could be toxic for the country as a whole.