SKS reaches new betting high as PM after general election

SKS reaches new betting high as PM after general election

Smarkets

I like this betting market because it seeks to look at the possibilities that there could be after the next election where it is beginning to look that neither of the main parties are in with a real chance of a majority.

On this it is very important to check the market rules before making a bet. These are:

This market relates to the Prime Minister of the first new government formed after the next UK general election. The first person who accepts an invitation from the monarch to form a government after the election will be considered the winner. This will apply even if they immediately lose a vote of confidence in the House of Commons. The incumbent PM will be settled as the winner if they successfully form a new government (which may not require the specific invitation above).

The big caveat on this is that theoretically, at least the next general election could be in January 2025. A lot will surely happen between now and then and it is quite hard to make a judgement.

My own view is that there will be no overall majority and we will have a hung Parliament. In that situation, Starmer will be the one who gets called to the palace.

Mike Smithson

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