It’s a 41% betting chance that Truss won’t survive 2023
The problems that Truss is having have not been helped by Starmer having a good conference and looking increasingly like the PM in waiting. Labour and its leader are on the up and the Tories moving down – something that CON MPs in marginal seats will only be too aware of.
The way her government’s economic plans have gone down like a lead balloon have only added to the challenges that Truss and her largely inexperienced cabinet are having to face. What the Chancellor announced in his budget is not going down well and you can see a fair number of Tory MPs being reluctant to back the party as it goes through the parliamentary process.
This wasn’t an official budget and was presented in the way it was to stop the Office of Budget Responsibility from having its views made public. This , as I understand it, means that the House of Lord will be less constrained in what it can do.
I just wonder whether she could face a confidence vote. You don’t get the impression that her and her Chancellor’s approach are getting much support at Westminster. Any Commons votes that go against her will be very damaging.