As can be seen from the betting chart Labour has never been favourite to have a majority at the next general election. We are in very new territory here. This comes after my post yesterday afternoon suggesting that this looked a value bet and one that I didn’t place!
Clearly punters are reacting to the latest polling one of which gives labour a 33% lead over the Conservatives. I am sure that number won’t be sustained but you can see Starmer’s party continuing to have a lead in the late teens or early twenties.
The big danger of this bet is if the Tories decide that they want another leader which in the current climate is a reasonable possibility. The mood at next week’s Tory conference and amongst MPs when they return the following week could be crucial.
I just wonder whether there will be a move to give the final say in Tory leadership elections to MPs and not the membership.