The mood at the Conservative conference in Birmingham this week can hardly have been helped by another opinion poll showing the Tories with a massive deficit.
If anything like these figures were to be repeated at a general election then hundreds of current Tory MPs would find themselves out of a job.
The big thing in polling analysis is the general direction rather than the specific vote shares and there is only one way of describing that at the moment it is downwards for the party that Liz Truss began leading just a month ago
Next week MPs are back at Westminster and no doubt all the talk will be on up the number of letters going to the chairman of the 1922 Committee Graham Brady seeking a confidence vote on Truss. My guess is that she would struggle to survive.
Let’s remember that only 50 the of 360 Tory MPs backed Truss in the first round of voting last July.
If she did lose a confidence vote it is hard to see her remaining at Number 10 while another leadership contest takes place. My bet would be on Sunak taking over as temporary leader.
Smarkets make it 59% chance that there will be a confidence vote.