Looking at the regular Smarkets next poll lead market I have to say that given the political landscape and increasing food, mortgages, and energy bills then the Tory polling is likely to remain in the toilet even though I’m expecting a modest Sunak polling boost simply because he’s not Liz Truss nor Boris Johnson.

My expectation is that a Tory poll lead in the near term is likely to be as rare as a decent Radiohead single so not 2022 seems the obvious bet.

TSE