Can Sunak really win back CON to LAB switchers and retain power?
At the weekend the Indy’s John Rentoul had an analysis under the heading “Here’s how Rishi Sunak can win the next election”. The heading was deliberately provocative and this an area that is worth looking at if only because it is against the prevailing narrative.
I like looking at numbers and featured above is from the latest Deltapoll survey which has LAB 24% ahead. It is where that vote is coming from that interests me. As can be seen about a quarter of the CON GE2019 vote has gone to LAB and this clearly is the battleground. The Tories will be doing everything to win them back and Starmer will be endeavouring to retain them.
The general line of attack for the Tories at general elections is to go for Labour leader and seek to find a weakness that can be magnified and exploited. So far attempts at that with Starmer have not succeeded.
I have said here many times before for the Tories can loose power even if they finish up with more MPs and more votes. In a hung Parliament they would struggle to find partners much more than Labour. As a result the seat threshold for Starmer to enter Number 10 is much lower than for Sunak.
The LAB leader remains the very strong betting favourite for next post general election PM.