Chester will be Rishi’s first by-election test
Will the Tories be doing better or worse than the polls
Above is a table from David Cowling showing the detailed results of the Chester constituency since the 1992 general election.
For Sunak this is his first Westminster by-election test. While victory looks remote he might find some comfort if the swing against the Tories in a real Westminster election is not as great as the polls. It will also be a good pointer for him if the swing against CON is not as large as other recent by-elections when Johnson was leader and PM.
As can be seen the city has gone to Labour on every occasion apart GE2010. All the signs are that LAB will hold onto the seat easily but could the circumstances of the by-election work against the party?