LAB’s not taking enough of the GE2019 CON vote
Why we should be skeptical of the LAB leads?
The above chart is based on detailed data of the GE2019 CON vote from the latest PeoplePolling survey.
A big thing that I would worry about if I was a LAB strategist is the relatively small amount of the Tory vote last time that is now voting for Starmer’s party.
A big driver of the don’t know/won’t vote segment could easily fall back in an election campaign.
Indeed for this reason some pollsters allocate a significant slab of the former Tory voters now saying don’t know towards the Tory total.
UPDATE Some have questioned the figures I used for the above chart. I have used data from the entire samples rather than just those expressing a voting intention. Not all pollsters provide this information.