This piece originally started off as a 2023 predictions thread but then I realised the 2024 presidential election and the next UK general election featured heavily then it dawned on me that is very likely that both these elections may happen within weeks if not days of each other which represents some challenges for punters.
Only the heir to the throne of the kingdom of idiots would hold a UK general election in January (2025), it would be an election campaign that straddles the Christmas and new year holidays which would bugger up campaigning. I’m not sure going canvassing on say Christmas Eve or any of those days between the December 23rd and January 2nd will be a vote winner. Who would want to go leafleting during that period?
When Prime Ministers and governments become mired in trouble they generally try and emulate Travolta Micawber, Stayin’ Alive long enough hoping something will turn up, so that’s why I expect Sunak or his successor will hang on until the autumn of 2024 which takes us to October/November/December 2024.
There’s more chance of the Free Presbyterian Church of Scotland converting to Roman Catholicism and declaring lifelong fealty to the Pope than a UK Prime Minister holding a general election in January. So what are the main issues if these two elections occur concurrently?
I) Bandwidth issues
UK general elections and US presidential elections are the two elections that drive the most money for political gamblers, they are what in part made Mike Smithson set up PB, the shortest gap between a US presidential election and a UK general election since the founding of PB is the six months between November 2004 and May 2005. In 2024 we could be talking of a gap between elections of days.
It’s not just two big elections, there are plenty of supplementary markets such as house and senate control, Scottish independence (if the SNP achieve a 2015 style result in 2024 then that conversation will need to happen), turnout, and next leader markets which happen concurrently. In seven out of the last eight general elections the result has triggered a leadership contest in one of the two major GB wide parties.
Some of us may not have the emotional strength to cope with these two elections happening so close.
II) Liquidity issues
As noted these are the two most bet on elections, liquidity issues may present challenges to some, a lot of us trade in and out of markets, so it could leave punters with the inability to keep on trading.
I’m really looking forward to dealing with two massive elections at the same time, it should be fun, this is what gambling is all about. 2024 could well be the year of the political gambler.