I am publishing the above simply because it is useful to have a reference point about where the betting stood in the key markets at the start of the year.

I am far from convinced about the American bets because there is such a long way to go and normally at this stage we have no idea who might be putting themselves into the frame.

As to the next UK General Election I think that Starmer will be the prime minister but whether he is heading a majority government or not is very much open to question. To move LAB from the 202 seats of G2019 to the 326 required for a majority is a massive ask and I will keep pointing to the very high proportion of GE2019 CON voters who currently are saying don’t know

For me the jury is still out on Sunak because I’ve been less than impressed by his Commons performances and I’m not sure that he yet has the public appeal to take the party forward. What we perhaps don’t appreciate is how little experience he has at the top level in politics and he was only elected an MP 7 years ago. He has only ever known being in the party of government and Johnson is there waiting to pounce if an opportunity occurs,

Mike Smithson