Stopping a LAB majority would be a victory
So far the polls in 2023 have shown little difference from those of last year and all are still pointing to a substantial LAB victory at the next general election whenever it happens.
From Sunak’s perspective, any outcome other than a LAB majority can be seen as a victory and I for one think that this is achievable. The seat calculators suggest that for LAB to have an overall majority it will need a GB vote lead well ahead of 10% and that is a big ask. Starmer however would likely become PM. even if LAB doesn’t get a majority because deals would be done with other parties that would see the end of the Tory government.
Indeed I can see Starmer becoming Prime Minister even if the Tories win more votes and more seats than LAB. What matters is that the Tories should lose their majority and in that situation, Starmer would clearly be the obvious choice for PM Taking the Irish situation into account this means the Tories losing 47 or more seats.
This will all be a long time ahead and the Sunak government could hang on until early 2025 if it so wanted to do.