The Smarkets chart above shows how the next general election most seats betting has been moving since the last contest.
Undoubtedly this is driven by the polls and given that Labour continues to have very significant leads across the board then it is not surprising that punters are taking the view they are of the eventual outcome.
I think the problem at the moment for the Tories is that Rishi Sunak has yet to build up significant support for himself in the polls. Normally a new leader would expect to see a boost as soon as he/she got the job. But undoubtedly the Tory party was damaged by the crazy events of last autumn when we saw three Conservative leaders in less than 2 months.
I’m not entirely convinced that Rishi will make it through to the general election. He badly needs to be able to demonstrate that he is an electoral asset and that more Tory MPs would retain their seats with him in charge rather than another leader.
This year’s May local elections could be the trigger point if the Tories don’t do well.