A LAB majority now a 62% chance in the GE betting
A combination of the ongoing 20%+ LAB poll leads combined with what is happening in parliamentary and local government by-elections have continued to reinforce the betting market view about what will happen at the general election.
The current 62% chance for an overall majority that Labour is rated is at is the highest it’s ever been and it looks as though it could go up further. All the talk now is of how difficult the Tories are going to find the next big electoral test in the locals in the first week in May.
On the previous thread there were reports from canvassers in one or two of the areas and the picture they describe was pretty glum for Sunak’s party.
I’m still wondering whether in a last throw of the dice the Tories might decide to ditch Sunak and go for somebody else assuming that the May local elections are as bad as everybody in the party appears to fear.
Unless there is a radical change in the polling the next election is going to see 100+ and maybe a lot more Tory MPs losing their seats and that must be making them feel very nervous at the moment.