It’s hard to envisage the circumstances in which Starmer doesn’t become PM
I have been trying to envisage the electoral outcome under which Starmer doesn’t become PM.
Let’s assume for a moment that there is a big recovery for the Tories and they come out of the general election as top party but below the threshold required for them to have a majority.
By my reckoning if the Tory losses are more than 47 seats Starmer could become Prime Minister of a minority government even if his party came second on seats and had fewer votes than the Tories.
The reason of course is that the Tories would find it much much harder to find supply and confidence partners than Starmer. You could just about envisage some sort of flaky arrangement with the DUP but that is about all.
For unlike Labour the Tories have become uncoalitionable and that would be Starmer’s great strength.
All of this is why I believe the current 80% chance that the betting markets have of Starmer becoming the post-election prime minister is good value.