It's not much of a bounce but it is one nevertheless. Sunak will hope that this is the start of something and that he can build on it over the coming months with further positive news. Labour's big poll leads are relatively new, remember. https://t.co/nGyh53rGWu

— JWExTheSpa (@SpaJw) March 3, 2023

This is one of those times when I recall the advice of the Tory polling advisor Lord Hayward. He always took the view that we need to wait 2 weeks before coming to a conclusion about whether a particular event has had an impact on public opinion.

On the face of it the Sunak government has had a very good week and no doubt he will be approaching things with a good deal more confidence. His big move on Northern Ireland seems to have gone down well and appears to be resonating but how significant is that?

The only polls we have had so far have been from firms that began political polling after the last election.

How much do events within the province have on opinion in the rest of the UK? That is hard to say and my guess is that it is easy to overstate the political significance.

Mike Smithson