CON MPs will do what’s best for their survival chances?
Has the ex-PM now become an electoral liability?
As can be seen just about all the front page trail the big parliamentary event this afternoon when the privileges committee report on Johnson is discussed by the House.
What will determine the outcome and Johnson’s political career is the assessment of his parliamentary colleagues as to whether keeping him or getting rid of him is the best option to save their seats at the next election.
What is working against Johnson is that just about all of us followed the rules for the pandemic and we all suffered in one way or another. We were banned from seeing families for many months and the idea that the prime minister at the time was not following the restrictions can make people very angry.
It is my view that the best outcome for Labour and the LDs is that Tory MPs effectively decide to let Johnson off. That will ensure that this issue continues to be live until the general election.
In the betting it is now a 61% chance that Johnson won’t be an MP after the next election.