I have raised this before about current polling and there has not been any real change in the fact that a significant proportion of GE2019 CON voters continue to tell pollsters that they don’t know.
The chart based on the last Opinium poll numbers shows the current breakdown of voting intention by those who backed the Tories at the last general election.
As can be seen 24% of those who voted for Johnsone’s party in December 2019 are currently telling pollsters that they don’t know. That is a very significant part of the electorate and remember these are people who do turn out to vote.
Frustratingly only a few pollsters present their data in a form where what I believe is the most important element is available.
My guess is that a big slice of current Reform voters and GE2019 don’t knows will back Sunak’s party
Whilst I find it hard to see how Sunak’s party can hang on I am yet to be convinced that LAB will have an overall majority – 50% +1 of the 650 seats. I have a bet on LAB not having a majority.