What happens if there’s no improvement in the polls for the Tories or the polls gets worse for the Tories?
The reality is Rishi Sunak isn’t very good, he lost to Liz Truss, who lost to a lettuce, only her implosion led to Sunak become Prime Minister, he only looks good because his two immediate predecessors were so bad there isn’t an adjective in the English language to accurately describe them. Alastair Meeks makes this observation (before last night’s Opinium)
The long run of dire polls [for the Tories]: since 1 March, they have topped 30% just 12 times out of 83 polls and tallied under 25% eight times in the same period, while Labour got 45% or more in well over half the polls (this, bear in mind, is when Rishi Sunak was supposedly leading a much-touted revival).
A lot of political observes and punters expect the polls to narrow between now and election day but I’m wondering if the polls actual do widen or largely remain static. In the tweet atop this thread it is clear the schisms in the party are getting wider, exacerbated by Boris Johnson’s fans who are more fellowship of the ringpieces than return of the king, the prospect and the actualité of Boris Johnson returning as Prime Minister is likely to push the Tory ratings to Truss levels as seen in the clip below.
At the moment I’m not looking at backing a Rishi Sunak exit in 2023 even though I have previously backed such a happenstance because a tipping point could occur if Sunak backs any recommendation to suspend Boris Johnson from the House of Commons.
The betting angle I am considering is backing a May 2024 general election. If the polls remain as bad for the Tories the Sunak’s party are in course for such a pummelling that Tory MPs might decide to oust Sunak as they deem him to be a loser in May 2024.
Back in 2019 the Tories suffered a drubbing at the locals and European elections yet later on that year they ended up winning a general election with a majority of 80, so they may hope that a new leader could do that and Rishi Sunak must fear that and could preempt that by holding the general election before he loses hundreds of councillors.
Whoever is the Tory leader at the next election, and whenever it is, the Tory party is ensuring is the result is a close rerun of 1997.