LAB increasing its lead in the “Red Wall”
R&W introduced this polling series 15 months ago and in many ways it could provide a better guide to the general election outcome than standard voting polls. This covers 40 seats 39 of them which were taken by the Tories at the last general election in what has become known as the red wall. The other seat Hartlepool was taken by the Tories in the byelection two years ago.
As can be seen at the general election the Tories had a 9% lead over LAB in these seats. This has now been reversed to a 22% Conservative lead which represents a swing of more than 15%.
Although I think that LAB is leading by a big margin a question mark hangs over the significant proportion of GE2019 CON voters who are saying “don’t know”. My guess is that many will return to the blues.
One of the problems LAB will face next time is messaging and trying to ensure that what it is saying in the national campaign goes down well in the red wall whilst at the same time seeking to win seats in what has become known as the blue wall. This might prove tricky because in the latter the Lib Dems have been performing very well in Westminster by-elections and indeed have high hopes of taking mid-Bedfordshire which is one of the three by-elections coming up.