When’s Rishi going to risk a general election?
Ben Walker in the New Statesman has a piece on a subject we are going to hear a lot about in the coming months – when will Sunak decide to call a general election?
Since the law changes brought in by Johnson the decision on the date is now one for the PM and the PM alone so history can blame the incumbent who made the decision if he gets it wrong. This is the core of Walker’s analysis:
If we …dismiss any hope of a Conservative recovery, then the argument runs as follows: lose today, begin recovery today. Start to refresh your party’s image and campaign operation in time for 2027 or 2028. If you can’t turn the economy or, indeed, the polling tide around, then why wait?
I’m not sure. My view is that Rishi likes being PM and will seek to be there as long as possible. I have a small bet on him waiting till 2025.
What we need are betting markets with the options being single months.