Are we reading June’s Uxbridge by-election wrongly?
The successful CON defence of Uxbridge on June 23rd is being used by many to raise doubts about current polling and whether the very large LAB leads would actually be there at a general election.
All sorts of different explanations have been put forward particularly on the political impact of ULEZ.
It only struck me today whilst looking to the October 19th by-elections that there is another more obvious explanation. Like on June 23rd on October 19th LAB is looking to take two seats – Mid Beds and Tamworth – and that might be asking too much.
If there had been no Selby by-election on the same day as Uxbridge then more LAB campaigning resource would have been available to fight Johnson’s former seat and maybe the result would have been different.
Are we asking too much of LAB on October 19th to make two gains from the Tories?