On whether Tories are right to make immigration such a focus a few different things are true in public opinion terms.
1. No doubt people are angry about failure/broken promises on tackling channel crossings. It’s the top reason 2019 Tories now say they would go elsewhere. pic.twitter.com/qUvqFtTeYJ

— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) December 9, 2023

3. But on salience. Illegal migration pales into comparison to both the cost of living and the NHS. Immigration is higher for 2019 Tories but still far behind the cost of living. For that reason a single issue immigration election (that isn’t cost of living) is a non starter pic.twitter.com/CbXk9D1z8z

— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) December 9, 2023

5. It is an untested proposition whether playing on immigration stops bleeding to Reform UK or simply moves debate onto turf where they will always be able to outbid the Tories. Experience of European centre right parties suggests it may help populists right more

— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) December 9, 2023

So taken together, the Tories probably don’t have a choice but to try and regain the initiative on immigration. But there are risks and single issue election while cost of living is still hurting and people can’t get a GP appointment is a non-starter.

— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) December 9, 2023

And on salience. It isn’t true this is a media confection, people have genuine concerns – particularly public service pressure. But govt made it worse by A) promises they haven’t kept B) making only total stoppage on boats count rather than trumpeting success of Albania deal.

— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) December 9, 2023