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Author: Editor

Leave it to Cummings

Leave it to Cummings

And now for something for completely different I tell you, there are days that you can’t please anyone. It all started conventionally enough.  The fresh morning light crept through the gap in the curtains and caressed my face with the tenderness of an unattended car alarm. The Moggster had introduced me to a patriotic drink called Lambrini the previous evening.  I was now flying the Union Flag upside down. As I lay on my bed, sprawled and desolately flapping like a mackerel…

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Polling Analysis: Amongst likely voters Opinium has Starmer with 4% lead over Johnson as best PM

Polling Analysis: Amongst likely voters Opinium has Starmer with 4% lead over Johnson as best PM

A guest slot from Wulfrun Phil on latest Opinium poll Published responses to supplementary polling questions are not routinely filtered to limit responses only to those likely to vote in a General Election. That can distort interpretations of “Best PM” polling, because only the responses from those who will vote are ultimately relevant.  Helpfully, Opinium provide so much rich detail in their data tables here that we can apply the filtering ourselves. In their latest poll, the full unfiltered sample…

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House effect. The Polish presidential election

House effect. The Polish presidential election

Not Europe again?  I’m afraid so.  Fortunately, this time it’s for an election: the Polish presidential election.  The health of Poland’s democracy has been in question for some time, with the government going down the Hungarian route of controlling the media, packing the courts and using chicanery to exploit the advantages of government to the hilt. The Polish public have the opportunity, should they so choose, to change this on Sunday.  The second round of the presidential election takes place…

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Tonight’s Keiran Pedley Ipsos-MORI podcast: Assessing the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson

Tonight’s Keiran Pedley Ipsos-MORI podcast: Assessing the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson

This week Kieran Pedley is joined by former Deputy Chief of Staff to David Cameron, Baroness Kate Fall and by Asa Bennett, Brexit Editor at the Daily Telegraph. Interspersed with insights from Ipsos MORI polling, they look at the state the Conservative Party finds itself in now; how it might differ from the party led by David Cameron; and the challenge posed to the future of the Conservatives in government by the election of Keir Starmer as leader of the…

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Starmer is the most popular leader of the opposition since Blair – so why isn’t LAB ahead?

Starmer is the most popular leader of the opposition since Blair – so why isn’t LAB ahead?

From Keiran Pedley – now of Ipsos-MORI It is fair to say that Keir Starmer has made a positive start to life as Labour leader. Our latest figures from the Ipsos MORI political monitor show that 51% of the British public are satisfied with the job Starmer is doing, 20% are dissatisfied and 29% don’t know.  Starmer’s net satisfaction score of +31 has never been beaten by a leader of the opposition in the 40+ years we have been tracking…

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The case for betting on a Trump victory in November

The case for betting on a Trump victory in November

A guest slot from Mr. Ed on Why he thinks the President will be re-elected If you don’t want Trump to win in November (which I think is most people on this site), then there is plenty of data out there to give you hope. The RCP national polling average has Biden’s lead over Trump at +7.1%. In key swing states, the RCP average also shows Biden leading in all 5 (FL, PA, WI, NC, AZ) and polls have suggested…

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The boys who cried sheep. The politics of the end of lockdown

The boys who cried sheep. The politics of the end of lockdown

Baby it’s cold outside. And don’t the public know it. The government’s Stay Home, Stay Safe campaign has been stunningly effective. A large chunk of the public is now firmly committed to Staying Home and Saving Lives.  They aren’t going to stop doing that just because a mere Prime Minister tells them otherwise. They’re having the mother of all duvet days. This is now becoming a problem. The government needs the economy to revive as soon as possible. It can only do so…

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How steep is Starmer’s mountain?

How steep is Starmer’s mountain?

Since the last election resulted in a substantial Conservative majority, many have said that Labour has a mountain to climb to win the next one.  The implication is that the result this time significantly influences the result next time.  The results in 2024 are influenced by the results in 2019.   But is that true?  In the jargon, do general election results suffer from serial autocorrelation – that bane of second year graduate students in statistical fields?   Serial autocorrelation defined If…

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