One for the night
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Betting against the GOP looks to be the value bet in Georgia
Make no mistake the runoff elections for two vacant Georgia senate seats on January 5th are about the most important non-Presidential US election in recent times. This is happening because in neither race on November 3rd did a winner emerge in either election where the rule is that a 50%_ vote share is required for victory. Currently there are 48 Senators who caucus with the Democrats and fifty who caucus with the Republicans. If the Democrats won both of the…
What’s Trump really up to?
A poker player says “Call Trump’s bluff” I think this analysis is on the right tracks. What must be dominating Trump’s mind at the moment is the possibility of facing criminal charges after the new President has been sworn on January 20th. My betting is that he won’t concede but there might be a deal of some kind and Trump is trying to exert as much pressure a he can by not doing so at the moment and really hindering…
Punters still betting on Trump even though his legal and other efforts to stay have floundered
Even after everything that has happened in the past few days Betfair have continued to keep their 2020 next president market open and the total amount of bets matched now exceeds £908 million. Given the terms of their market as set out on PB several times this is a nonsense and this should have been settled two weeks ago. Betfair has done its reputation no good with its handling of this. There have been two big developments in the US…
Punters make it a 65% chance that Johnson will still be PM on Jan 1 2022
Betting chart from the Smarkets exchange Ever since the father in law of Dominic Cummings said in the summer that Boris would be out with 6 months there has been speculation that the prime minister might be ready to go once Brexit is all sorted in the New Year. Certainly he hasn’t quite looked as sharp since he contracted COVID and he has seen a colossal drop in his leader ratings. Back in April YouGov had him with a net…
Another day and Betfair continues to earn more commission on the White House race
Above is the latest Betdata.io chart on the Betfair 2020 White House race which most bookies settled nearly a fortnight ago. Not so with Betfair who continue to accept bets and as I write the total value of bets matched has reached a staggering £793m up £166m over the past week. The firm’s market rules state that: This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election….
Trump’s ongoing denial about the election results isn’t going down well with voters
A Hill-Harris poll with a sample of 4k+ has just been published and finds that even the majority of Republican voters think Trump needs to concede. The overall split is in the chart while the detail shows 71% of Democratic respondents and 53% Republicans saying it is important for Trump to concede, with 60% of independents saying the same. These are not good for the President and suggest that he is not even convincing those who voted for him earlier in…
Should Betfair continue to allow punters to bet on Trump or should the market be settled now?
The Betfair 2020 next president market at 1500 Nov 19 There is a big debate going on amongst punters about the way Betfair is managing its next president market. While almost all other firms have closed their betting down and paid out on Biden Betfair continues to operate and has been taking huge amounts directly as a result of some punters being prepared even at this stage to bet on Trump. As this is an exchange other punters have been…