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Author: Mike Smithson

Kamala Harris declining sharply in the WH2024 betting

Kamala Harris declining sharply in the WH2024 betting

Following on from our discussion yesterday on Joe Biden the chart above shows how punters are increasingly negative about Kamala Harris’s chances of becoming the next President at WH2024. This follows declining poll ratings for the VP and a series of reports suggesting that all is not well in her office. This is from The Hill “Six months into office, polls indicate Harris is viewed less favorably than President Biden. She has also made some tactical missteps outside of the…

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My 250/1 punt on Sunak for next PM looking good

My 250/1 punt on Sunak for next PM looking good

Rishi is on the rise Back in November 2019 less than a fortnight before the general election longstanding PBer, Philip Thompson, had a guest slot here in which he suggested that the then 200/1 that Ladbokes offering on Sunak as next PM looked like a great value bet. What prompted Philip Thompson to suggest that big things might be in the offing for Rishi was that “Sunak has been earmarked by Boris to represent the Conservative Party in the 7-way…

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The polling tide turning for the Tories?

The polling tide turning for the Tories?

Last night’s Redfield poll followed a week when the Tory lead was getting narrower and could suggest that things might be changing. As can be seen the CON lead went up to 7% compared with 4% the week before. The big thing about that poll was another very good share, 11%, for the LDs which compares with the 6% from Deltapoll only a few days before. We’ll obviously have to wait for two or three more surveys before we can…

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Biden should be a stronger favourite than this to win a second term

Biden should be a stronger favourite than this to win a second term

Joe Biden will be 79 in November and provided his health holds then he’ll surely seek to retain the White House at WH2024. So far his approval ratings are just about holding up and next time the Dems will face a party that is now in the total control of Trump who would be a not too difficult opponent to face even though he is still in denial about what happened last November. Actually, I don’t think he believes a…

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Johnson drops sharply in the August CONHome satisfaction ratings

Johnson drops sharply in the August CONHome satisfaction ratings

Time to be bet on a possible early exit? Every month we have the Conservative Home satisfaction ratings of cabinet ministers and the big feature of the latest one is the position of the PM. He’s down since last month a massive 36% and has a net satisfaction rating of just 3.4. As one of the many comments on the site put it “Boris should have learned the lesson from his predecessor. People don’t like dithering, and don’t like being…

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The LAB MP in CON General ElectionTarget Number 1 knocks on my door

The LAB MP in CON General ElectionTarget Number 1 knocks on my door

The “99%” certain CON gain according to the exit poll At about 4pm on election night in December 2019 I decided to call it a day and try to get some sleep. Before I did I checked if my own result in Bedford had come in and the BBC website suggested the count was still going on but that this was a “99% certain Tory gain” according to the exit poll. Well that was pretty emphatic and I didn’t bother…

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YouGov/Times “Blue Wall” poll finds six point CON to LAB swing since GE2019

YouGov/Times “Blue Wall” poll finds six point CON to LAB swing since GE2019

As has been widely reported there’s a YouGov/S Times poll of “blue wall” seats to see the change since GE2019. The outcome is not good for the Tories and suggests that it might be challenging holding on to them and red wall ones at the same time. With the Tories dropping 8% and LAB going up by 4% that equates to a CON to LAB swing of 6%. The Tory seats chosen for the poll all voted Remain at the…

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The growing NHS waiting list is arguably the Tories’ biggest challenge

The growing NHS waiting list is arguably the Tories’ biggest challenge

The Tories cannot go into the next election with 5m on the list One of the inevitable consequences of dealing with COVID has been the impact on those who have wanted the NHS for other reasons who are currently on waiting lists of one sort or another. It is estimated that there are 5m currently on them and this could be increasing all the time. Inevitably the primary focus has been on controlling the infection but as that pressure eases…

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