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Author: Mike Smithson

BoJo a 9% betting chance to be CON leader at the election

BoJo a 9% betting chance to be CON leader at the election

This is a betting market that I’ve not looked at before and it is very difficult to argue that the current odds are wrong. There is little doubt that Johnson, given half a chance, would love to be back at Number 10. The question is whether or not he is going to be given that chance. At the moment that seems unlikely. Sunak is getting more established at Number 10 having just completed his first 100 days. A worry for…

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Can anything shift the polls Sunak’s way?

Can anything shift the polls Sunak’s way?

This week Sunak completed his first 100 days in Downing Street and looks pretty solid to continue there until the general election. While the latest batch of polls has three surveys with the deficit in teens the overall picture is still fairly daunting for Tory strategists. To maintain a majority the party probably needs a lead of 5% over LAB and that seems a very remote possibility. The fact is that in spite of two leader changes the polls are…

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Why LAB could struggle to get a majority

Why LAB could struggle to get a majority

Not enough of the GE2019 CON vote is going LAB The above chart is based on data from tonight’s YouGov poll for the Times and seeks to show how the 2019 Tory vote is currently viewing the next election. The big worry I would have if I was Starmer is that the party is not picking up enough of the Tory vote from last time. Getting just 12% of them points to a real struggle next time when one would…

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What REMAIN and LEAVE voters now think of Brexit

What REMAIN and LEAVE voters now think of Brexit

Looking at the detail from the world cloud then the views of leave voters seem to have changed more than the reviews of remain voters. That fits with other polling which is now suggesting that it will be about 58 to 42 Remain if there was another referendum. But there isn’t going to be another vote and the most interesting feature head is how will the presumed incoming Starmer government deal with Europe? My guess is that it will be…

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The polling’s not looking good for US Congressman Santos

The polling’s not looking good for US Congressman Santos

Does the “Liar sleep tonight” One of the big stories in US politics at the moment has been on George Santos who last November gained the Long Island seat in the US House of Representatives for the Republicans. The reason this is so big is that many of the things that he has said about himself have proved to be total fabrications. These include lies about his mother being in the twin towers on 9/11 and him being Jewish. What…

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Sunak’s hardline on the strikes could lead to his own destruction

Sunak’s hardline on the strikes could lead to his own destruction

One thing that we have learnt from political history is that if the government wants to take on a group of strikers then it must have the support of the public. That is not happening with the current wave with the public generally supporting those who want pay increases in line with inflation rather than what is being offered. The crunch starts next week when teachers and nurses are joining the action which is right across the public sector. Sky…

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