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Author: Mike Smithson

If uniform national swing (UNS) applies then the Tories will make it three by-election wins out of three

If uniform national swing (UNS) applies then the Tories will make it three by-election wins out of three

So far we have not had any opinion polls on the next two Westminster by-elections – Chesham & Amersham (June 17th) and Batley & Spen (July 1st) but in each case the Tories are firm odds-on favourites in the betting. We also saw what happened at Hartlepool on May 6th and the broad assumption is that the same trends will be seen in the next two up. Certainly that is how punters are looking at them. At C&A the Tories…

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The right wing press appears uneasy about where BoJo is going

The right wing press appears uneasy about where BoJo is going

The worry that is starting to be expressed a lot more is that BoJo & co so much enjoy all the powers that fighting COVID has given them that they will be reluctant to give it up. For there will always be a reason why things shouldn’t be eased and so far at least the polls are generally supportitve. I just wonder whether a less than good result for the Tories at Chesham & Amersham on Thursday might be an…

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With three days to go the best Chesham and Amersham bet

With three days to go the best Chesham and Amersham bet

Although you might not have noticed it if you follow the national media there is a by-election on Thursday which has the potential to cause shockwaves. Chesham and Amersham is the first such contest since Brecon in 2019 where the LDs think they are in with a shout and have been throwing everything at the campaign. Leader Ed Davey has been there almost every day and hundreds of activists from all over the country have been working on the campaign….

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The betting markets are over-stating Andy Burnham’s chances of succeeding Starmer

The betting markets are over-stating Andy Burnham’s chances of succeeding Starmer

Andy Burnham is riding high at the moment. The latest Ipsos MORI polling on who “has what it takes to be a good PM” had the Mayor of Greater Manchester with better net ratings than either BoJo or Sunak. He was on a net plus 11% with Sunak on a net plus 7% and Johnson on a net plus 2. Ladbrokes currently have former LAB MP and now Mayor of Greater Manchester as 7/2 favourite for next LAB leader. On…

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As far as punters are concerned the Tories are strong odds-on to win the Batley and Spen by-election

As far as punters are concerned the Tories are strong odds-on to win the Batley and Spen by-election

On July 1st LAB go into their second difficult northern by-election defence at Batley & Spen and following the loss of Hartlepool on May 6th the Tories are strong favourites to take the seat. Generally, government parties have trouble with by-elections like this where the main opposition party is defending a seat held at the previous general election. Until LAB lost Copeland in 2017 this was almost something that just about never happened. But it says something about current UK…

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CON lead slips to 13% with YouGov that has the Greens in third place ahead of the LDs

CON lead slips to 13% with YouGov that has the Greens in third place ahead of the LDs

But YouGov continues to have the best blue ratings I always like to look at recent polls in context by using the Wikipedia table above. As can be seen YouGov continues to find the biggest leads for the Tories with most other recent polls having the margin in single figures. Opinium, the top pollster at GE2019 is due to report next on Saturday night. The challenge for the Greens under FPTP is that it is hard to convert a 9%…

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Theresa May is right to slam Johnson and his ministers for maintaining travel bans

Theresa May is right to slam Johnson and his ministers for maintaining travel bans

BoJo’s predecessor takes on the government on the key issue of the day In all the years I have been following and writing about politics I cannot recall a speech from an ex-PM like the above one from TMay. Remember she was not attacking another party but the current Tory government for maintaining the rigid travel bans when other countries are loosening up. All the evidence is that the vaccination programme has been a great success in protecting the vulnerable…

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