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Author: Mike Smithson

Polls like this make a confidence vote more likely

Polls like this make a confidence vote more likely

The most dangerous period for Johnson was never going to be the publication of Sue Gray’s report but the polling reaction to it and this evening we have the first survey carried out fully since the document came out. As will be recalled previous R&K poll carried out on Monday had the Tories 6% behind. Four days later the same pollster has the LAB lead at 9%. The big question is whether other pollsters who will be reporting in the…

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Rishi/BoJo U-Turn on a windfall tax

Rishi/BoJo U-Turn on a windfall tax

Only days ago it was being described as “UnConservative” With the price of energy soaring at an incredible rate the government have at last given into pressure and is introducing a windfall tax on the companies that are seeing their profits soar by the change. The PM has been particularly stringent in his opposition to such a move describing it as UnConsrrvative up to only a few days ago. Yet today, in the aftermath of the Gray “partygate” report we…

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Johnson trails Starmer by some margin on favourability

Johnson trails Starmer by some margin on favourability

One of the things that I think is important when looking at polling is to dig deeper and observe the trend. We all know that statistically individual polls do have a chance every so often of being out and this is why I really appreciate tables like the ones above from YouGov. Looking at the trends in tables like the above is more revealing. Of all the leadership questions the one I like the most is favourability and a few…

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Why this BoJo confidence wager is a good bet

Why this BoJo confidence wager is a good bet

The betting exchange, Smarkets, has just put up this market in anticipation perhaps of what might happen once MPs have all digested the Gray report. For me what makes betting on a Johnson loss good value are the market rules which state: This market relates to the result of any no confidence vote in Boris Johnson held by the Conservative parliamentary party. This market will be void if no vote is held in 2022. My reading is that the 54…

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Ahead of the Gray report 2022 moves up in the PM exit betting

Ahead of the Gray report 2022 moves up in the PM exit betting

This is not a market I am betting on but I show it here because it is the issue of the moment. Tonight there’s a BBC documentary with reportedly quite remarkable reports of what was happening in Number 10 when the rest of the nation was locked down. This is from the BBC: For the first time, insiders who were at some of the events have told BBC Panorama in detail what they saw. They describe arriving for work the…

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