It is hard to see what has happened in the past week to explain the shift apart from the fracas with the Home Secretary and Sunak’s decision not to sack her. He came out of that affair not very well. The general election betting remains pretty static with punters making it a 54% chance that there will be a LAB overall majority – that is 326 seats or more. Mike Smithson
Brexit is being looked at even more negatively The above is from YouGov and has the latest view on Brexit. The data I always look to in Brexit polling is the one here on the far right on the table – what the C2DE split is. These, of course, were always regarded as the big drivers of the referendum outcome and have tended to remain supportive. But that has changed. Look now and 55% think it has been more of…
I have been very struck by this from YouGov on how backers of the Tories and LAB trust or distrust different news outlets. The ones that surprise me most are the Daily Express and Daily Mail which are both distrusted by backers of both main parties. On the other side of the coin it is interesting to note how Channel 4 news has net trust positives with both LAB and CON voters. The Sun has the worst figures being distrusted…
It was always going to be the case surely that support for the monarchy would fall off a bit following the death of the Queen. She had a very special appeal built up over the decades and this was something that she could not pass on to her firstborn. The cost and sheer extravagance of the Coronation at a time when the vast majority of the Kings subjects were having to tighten their belts was inevitably going to be difficult…
But he’s still a 25% chance in the betting The big development in the 2024 White House race has been the expected announcement by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis that he was in fact standing for the presidency. This was hardly a surprise that has had almost exactly no impact on the betting. It has had an impact on his fundraising. NYT reports that he raised $8.2 million in his first 24 hours as a presidential candidate – a huge sum…
Robert Ford is the Professor of Political science at Manchester University.
One of the great things about the pollster Ipsos is that it has been carrying out political surveys in the UK since the mid-1970s. In the early days, it was known just as MORI but now it is part of the international polling group Ipsos. It has an incredible polling library which enables it to produce comparisons like the one above on how various opposition leaders were doing at this stage into their term of office. One thing the chart…
My one WH2024 Republican nomination bet so far is on the former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley. That is pretty impressive CV. A big reason is that she is likely to do very well her own state’s primary which usually comes straight after Iowa and New Hampshire. If that happens then it’s likely she will be portrayed in the media as the frontrunner to take on Trump very early on in the…