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Author: Mike Smithson

At last – I am able to have a holiday

At last – I am able to have a holiday

Like millions of others I feel as though I’ve been cooped up in my home office for more than a year. Well I’m going on holiday to North Northumberland in the morning returning in a week to get my second jab. I cannot tell you how much I am looking forward to waking up and have the above view from the bedroom window. PB will be in the capable hands of TSE. This has been a remarkable and sometimes uncomfortable…

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In spite of CON leads of 7-9% in the polls punters still rate a hung parliament as the most likely GE outcome

In spite of CON leads of 7-9% in the polls punters still rate a hung parliament as the most likely GE outcome

Above is the latest Betdata.io betting chart of Betfair’s next General Election overall majority market and as can be seen another Tory majority is rated as just a 37% chance behind a hung parliament. Part of this maybe because of the way the market is defined. A CON majority for this purpose requires the Tory seat total to be more than 50% of the total number of MPs. That means 326 or above. This for betting purposes ignores the fact…

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The Greensill/Cameron affair comes as postal vote are about to go out for the May 6th elections

The Greensill/Cameron affair comes as postal vote are about to go out for the May 6th elections

With maybe 60% of people voting in this way the timing could be crucial Because of the ongoing impact of the pandemic it is estimated by the Tory elections’ expert, Lord Hayward, that the total of postal votes from the May 6th elections could touch be in the region of 50-60% of all the votes that are cast. The big element here is that once someone has popped their ballot into the post then there is nothing they can do…

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What some Trump backing Republican donors get told if they don’t make their gifts recurring ones

What some Trump backing Republican donors get told if they don’t make their gifts recurring ones

Last week there was a big report in the New York Times about some of the high-pressure fundraising tactics of the Trump campaign. A feature that got special attention was that many donors who thought they had made one-off donations in the run up to WH2020 suddenly found that this had been deemed to be a weekly donation and money was being sucked out of their banks every 7-days. In many cases this had led to hardship. Apparently it was…

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Just 13 of the 31 local seats in Hartlepool on Westminster by-election day have Tory contenders

Just 13 of the 31 local seats in Hartlepool on Westminster by-election day have Tory contenders

As we all know the Hartlepool Westminster by-election is taking place on May 6th – the same day as the locals throughout England and the Scottish and Welsh Parliament elections. Nominations have now closed for the locals and these show that of the 31 council seats up for election in Hartlepool three weeks on Thursday there are just 13 CON candidates. Now I don’t know what to read into that, and there maybe local factors at play, but it is…

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Florida Governor Ron DeStantis looks a good bet for the GOP WH2024 nomination

Florida Governor Ron DeStantis looks a good bet for the GOP WH2024 nomination

He’s currently 6/1 second favourite behind Trump I’ve just had a small punt on DeSantis after reading this in the Wall Street Journal: Mr. DeSantis has burnished his brand with a Covid-19 response that has enthused the voter base of former President Donald Trump while—in Florida, at least—also impressing the kind of moderate and suburban voters who turned away from Mr. Trump in 2020..As the GOP looks to rebuild after losing the presidential election last year, that formula could give…

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More than 80 days into the job and Biden’s approval ratings stay very strong

More than 80 days into the job and Biden’s approval ratings stay very strong

The above chart from Nate Silver’s site show how remarkable strong Biden’s approval ratings have been since becoming President on January 20th. I’ve got a little bet on that he’ll still be in the 50-55% range on his 100 day in office on January 20th. To put them into context during his entire four years as President Trump never made it above 50%. Of course Biden came to power at a critical stage and his government has overseen a massive…

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Johnson-Starmer approval ratings – the great regional divide

Johnson-Starmer approval ratings – the great regional divide

The above chart has been prepared from the latest Opinium poll which came out for the Observer this evening. Rather than look at the voting numbers which show the Tories with an overall 9% lead what I am focusing on here is how the approval ratings for the two men match up region by region. As can be seen Boris is doing well getting better net figures than Starmer in most of England outside of London but the Labour leader…

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