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Author: Mike Smithson

The main debate message for Trump’s opponents is that there has to be a massive Biden victory – the bigger the margin the better

The main debate message for Trump’s opponents is that there has to be a massive Biden victory – the bigger the margin the better

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There’s been a huge amount of commentary and analysis following the overnight first Trump-Biden debate ahead of the November election. One of the best pieces is by David Frum in The Atlantic: Trump yelled, threatened, interrupted—and changed nothing. All he did was confirm the horror and revulsion of the large American majority that has already begun to cast its ballots against him. Correction: Trump did one thing. On the Cleveland stage, Trump communicated that he will seize any opportunity to…

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Lockdown: Trying to work out what the public will stand for and what it won’t

Lockdown: Trying to work out what the public will stand for and what it won’t

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The above two Tweets set out the debate that is going on about what’s necessary to control the pandemic and what people will put up with. All this, course, against the background of what is happening to the economy. My instinct is to go with Ipsos-MORI boss, Ben Page, who is now one of the elder statesmen of the British polling industry. For me personally the family thing is central and I just long to see my children and their…

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The WH2020 betting edges to Biden after probably the worst TV debate ever

The WH2020 betting edges to Biden after probably the worst TV debate ever

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I made the mistake of staying up and watching the Trump – Biden debate which was truly awful. This was the verdict of Taegan Goddard of PoliticalWire: This debate was one of the most embarrassing events in the history of American politics. Donald Trump’s only strategy was to interrupt constantly. When he talked, he mostly lied. But Trump was successful at throwing the entire debate off the rails. He apparently decided you can’t lose a debate if you ruin it. Joe…

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Now the Trump v Biden debate betting

Now the Trump v Biden debate betting

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Overnight in the US, starting at 2am BST, is the first TV debate between Trump and Biden. This is a huge moment and could set the narrative for the remaining five weeks before election day. A TV audience of of tens of millions is expected A key plank of the Trump campaign in recent months has been to try to suggest that 77 year old Biden does not have the mental capacity to be President. This means that they’ve set…

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With three months to go opposition to Brexit reaches its highest level yet

With three months to go opposition to Brexit reaches its highest level yet

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This could add to the political challenge facing Johnson Being frank I do not know what to make of the big increase in the proportion of the YouGov sample in the latest polling saying “Brexit Wrong”. It is such a big jump that it might be an outlier. This is just one poll and looking back over the four years of polling since the June 2016 referendum this is the first time the level has touched 50%. Taking account of…

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Trump moving downwards in the WH2020 betting following the publication of his tax returns

Trump moving downwards in the WH2020 betting following the publication of his tax returns

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A lot of activity today on the WH2020 betting markets following the publication by the New York Times of Trump’s tax returns. As can be seen from above Trump is edging downwards while Biden moves up. There’s little doubt that this will feature a lot tomorrow night when the first TV debate takes place. No doubt the president’s campaign team are working on possible responses at the moment. For the fact that the man who boasted of being a billionaire…

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New York Times Investigation: Donald Trump paid just $750 tax in his election year

New York Times Investigation: Donald Trump paid just $750 tax in his election year

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This bombshell comes on the eve of the first WH2020 TV debate With polling day in the US just five weeks and one day away a huge development this morning is a New York Times investigation into the incumbent’s tax affairs – something that he has fought hard to avoid being made public. This is how the paper sums up what it found: Donald J. Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes the year he won the presidency. In his…

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