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Author: Mike Smithson

Polling for Trump v Biden is following almost exactly the same pattern as for the 2018 Midterms

Polling for Trump v Biden is following almost exactly the same pattern as for the 2018 Midterms

If this continues Trump is out One of the striking features of the pattern of current Trump v Biden polling is how much it looks like the main polling for the Midterms in 2018. Just like that for the White House race now the Democratic lead in generic congressional polling followed a pretty constant 7-8% in the polling averages. As it turned out the 2018 surveys undershot the Dem final total by more than one point. The November 2018 Midterms…

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On the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much

On the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much

On Betfair he’s 53% to Trump’s 45% We are more than seven weeks away from the Presidential Election on November 3rd yet we can state with certainty that this will be be biggest political betting event there has ever been. On the UK exchange, Betfair, a total of £82m+ has already been wagered on one market alone and that is just one bookmaker. All of the conventional firms and the spread betting companies have very active markets and by the…

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Johnson’s former Attorney-General, Geoffrey Cox, says he’ll rebel against the PM’s ignore international law bill

Johnson’s former Attorney-General, Geoffrey Cox, says he’ll rebel against the PM’s ignore international law bill

He’s the biggest name so far With Johnson planning to push ahead with a law that would allow the government to ignore treaty obligations in relation to Brexit a big Tory figure and Brexiteer, former A-G Geoffrey Cox has told that Times that he plans to join the rebels when this comes before the house. It is being reported that Cox’s mind is made up despite several appeals by the PM over the weekend. A big element is not just…

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Will tonight see the first poll since GE2019 with LAB ahead?

Will tonight see the first poll since GE2019 with LAB ahead?

It might seem an eternity ago but in the first polls in April this year after Starmer became LAB leader two pollsters had CON leads of 26%. Since then things have fallen back sharply for the governing party and in its last survey at the end of August Opinium, had LAB and CON level pegging on 40% each. Tonight we are due the latest Opinium poll and I just wonder whether this will be the moment that LAB edges into…

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A Politico survey of early voting data in key WH2020 swing states finds the Democrats building up a marked advantage

A Politico survey of early voting data in key WH2020 swing states finds the Democrats building up a marked advantage

Early voting has been going on for a a few days now in group of key states where it’s possible from the data that is being made available to get some indication of how the WH2020 battle is going. Of course no votes have been counted yet – this is all derived from the numbers requesting to vote by mail linked and with what is known about them. In several of the States where information is available we are told…

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If you want to bet that the WH2020 polls are wrong you need longer odds than currently available

If you want to bet that the WH2020 polls are wrong you need longer odds than currently available

A former PB regular has been in touch with me to say that we’ve got it all wrong over the betting on the American election. He argues that Trump is in a much better position than several of the recent posts on the site have suggested and there are reasons to believe that the US polling is is not correct. Now he may be right and come early November those who have backed Trump will be delighted at the prospect…

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