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Author: Mike Smithson

If Biden doesn’t run at WH2024 Buttigieg should be as strong a nomination contender as Harris

If Biden doesn’t run at WH2024 Buttigieg should be as strong a nomination contender as Harris

Currently he’s a 4% betting chance while she’s a 35% one There seems to be a widespread assumption in the betting that should Joe Biden not be running for the 2024 nomination then Kamala Harris will almost automatically be the chosen one. This is reflected in the betting odds where I believe Buttigieg is under priced and Harris is overpriced. A big reason, I would suggest, is that Buttigieg’s role as US Transportation Secretary is going to give him significantly…

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My email from Boris suggests the Tory database is not as sophisticated as you might expect

My email from Boris suggests the Tory database is not as sophisticated as you might expect

I have never quite worked out why the CCHQ have me on their database as a supporter and potential donor. Back in October 2009 I did attend a local public event where David Cameron was the speaker and I reported this on PB. To get entry I had to supply my email address. What I cannot understand is why I am still on the list having not responded to anything at all that might be construed as showing support. At…

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The Scottish leader ratings suggest that LAB might beat the Tories for second place

The Scottish leader ratings suggest that LAB might beat the Tories for second place

Ever since the SNP came to power in Scotland at the 2011 Holyrood elections I have paid more notice of leader ratings north of the border than voting intention numbers. Then at this stage the voting polls had SLAB in the lead but the then SNP leader Alex Salmond, totally dominated the leader ratings. On that basis I was posting on here saying that the SNP represented good value to win at odds longer than evens. Salmond had totally outshone…

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The extraordinary range of views of Nicola Sturgeon

The extraordinary range of views of Nicola Sturgeon

The above chart is from the latest YouGov poll and shows the extraordinary range of views on whether those sampled had a favourable or unfavourable view of Nicola Sturgeon. The split I find most surprising is the very different numbers coming from the female segment in the sample and the male segment. I would not have expected something so striking and I just wonder whether there is a whiff of sexism about that. That Tory voters are so hostile and…

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Betting opens for the May 6th locals on the BBC’s Projected National Shares for CON and LAB

Betting opens for the May 6th locals on the BBC’s Projected National Shares for CON and LAB

This time, surely, the Tories look set to exceed 38% This year’s elections cover those seats last voted on in both 2016 and 2017 because, of course, last year’s elections were postponed because of COVID and so will be substantially larger than usual. It is quite difficult devising betting markets for the locals but this year the innovative Smarkets has been creative and is now taking exchange bets on the BBC’s Projected National Shares. These are the market rules: This…

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