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Author: Mike Smithson

It’s amazing what latest polls have done to SKS’s confidence

It’s amazing what latest polls have done to SKS’s confidence

So today we have seen the first major shadow cabinet reshuffle by Keir Starmer underlining the fact that he is very confident now of his position as Labour leader. Would he have felt able to axe several ministers who came to the fore in the Corbyn years if the polling gap with the Tories had not closed? Remember he took over in April 2020 when LAB was up to 26% behind His line up includes many big names from yesteryear…

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Could Reform’s Tice surprise us on Thursday?

Could Reform’s Tice surprise us on Thursday?

I’ve just come across a BBC News report on Thursday’s Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election which has the remarkable claim by ReformUK that the party has knocked on 90% of doors in the seat. I find this hard to believe because it is a massive task for any party to achieve that level of penetration in a Westminster by-election. This is from the BBC News report: Reform UK – formerly the Brexit Party – may no longer have Nigel Farage…

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Old Bexley & Sidcup: Another CON by-election flop?

Old Bexley & Sidcup: Another CON by-election flop?

The pressure mounts with 3 days to go The message from the betting markets is that punters are staying with the Tories to hold onto Old Bexley and Sidcup in the first of the party’s two December by-election defences. As can be seen from the Smarkets chart BJ’s party is currently rated at a near 92% chance on the betting exchange. On the ground the word is that the Tories are taking nothing for granted and top figures, including the…

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After over-turning a 26% deficit can LAB’s recovery be sustained?

After over-turning a 26% deficit can LAB’s recovery be sustained?

The chart illustrates what has been a quite remarkable recovery since Starmer became leader on April 4th last year. He’s taken his party from a polling deficit of 26% to being just ahead in several current polls. A lot of this, of course, has been about the detoxification of the party from the disastrous leadership of his predecessor who led Labour at GE2019 to its worst result since 1933. Corbyn undermined so much and the polling at the last election…

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On Smarkets its a 55% chance that Scotland will vote for Independence

On Smarkets its a 55% chance that Scotland will vote for Independence

The polling has a different picture The former head of political research at the BBC, David Cowling, has issued his latest polling table showing the results of all the surveys on how Scottish voters think another independence referendum would go. The last such vote was in 2014 when it was rejected by a margin of about 10%. As can be seen from the polling table there has been some movement from that point and there have been a couple of…

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The Channel Migrant tragedy on many of the front pages

The Channel Migrant tragedy on many of the front pages

The awfulness of the tragedy in the Channel inevitably gets a lot of coverage this morning and one of the issues is that there appears to be no obvious solution. The idea that British troops or other forces should patrol French beaches doesn’t seem feasible. The French government is hardly going to allow armed forces from a foreign power to enter its territory. The real tragedy is that the people involved are so desperate that they are prepared to take…

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The Tories get their best voting poll for more than three weeks

The Tories get their best voting poll for more than three weeks

Given what has happened in British politics over the last few weeks I find it remarkable that back in August one of the best bets that I was recommending was that LAB would get a polling lead of some sort by the end of the year. Then such a possibility seemed so remote but how things have changed. When I made that bet with Smarkets I was talking about the possibility of an outlier. Now with the latest Kantar 3%…

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