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Author: Mike Smithson

As the COVID crisis continues there’s a decline in public confidence in the NHS’s ability to cope

As the COVID crisis continues there’s a decline in public confidence in the NHS’s ability to cope

Throughout the COVID crisis Ipsos MORI has been carrying out regular surveys when the same questions are asked in the same manner so we can look at the trends. The latest polling shows: Confidence in the NHS continues to fall, 72% of those aged 18-75 are confident in the abilities of the NHS to deal with those who are ill as a result of Coronavirus, down from 76% in September and 81% in June Older Britons are more confident than…

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Veteran commentator Peter Oborne on the real reasons why Cummings had to go

Veteran commentator Peter Oborne on the real reasons why Cummings had to go

A combination of Brexit and Biden? Interesting article in Middle East Eye from Peter Oborne on what he says are the real reasons why Cummings is no longer at Number 10. He writes: Cummings’ Vote Leave group has long argued that Britain must threaten a no-deal Brexit, with all the risks that involves in terms of economic consequences. In contrast, most Cabinet ministers are now arguing with great force that Johnson must strike a deal. It looks like Cummings has lost the argument. ..The fact…

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The best Georgia run-off bet – the Democrats to take both Senate seats at a 23.3% chance

The best Georgia run-off bet – the Democrats to take both Senate seats at a 23.3% chance

Above is the market from the Smarkets exchange on the big outstanding issue from the White House election fifteen days ago. This is on whether the Democrats can win the Georgia run-offs which would give them control of the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate. In spite of the ongoing machinations by Trump to try to hang on to the Presidency and the barrage of legal cases aimed to undermine the result it looks as though it…

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Given the proximity of the Scottish Parliament elections Johnson’s devolution comments might not be wise

Given the proximity of the Scottish Parliament elections Johnson’s devolution comments might not be wise

One of the things that the pandemic has meant is that there have been almost no elections taking place in the UK since March. This was changed a little bit last month with the lifting of the ban on council by-elections in Scotland but so far we’ve not seen the regular weekly data showing what is happening when real voters cast real ballots in the rest of the UK. Coming up in May will be a very big election day…

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Betfair’s “Next President” market remains open and so far a staggering £696m of bets have been matched

Betfair’s “Next President” market remains open and so far a staggering £696m of bets have been matched

Chart Betdata.io While other bookies and the Smarkets betting exchange might have closed their main WH2020 markets that on Betfair remains open and continues to attract big money. Punters seem to be split into two camps – those thinking that it is almost a certainty that Biden will be next President and even odds of 94% make it a value bet and those who think that somehow Trump still has a chance. The amounts being wagered at the moment are…

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