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Author: Mike Smithson

Today’s front pages with a taste of what the new PM will face

Today’s front pages with a taste of what the new PM will face

Perhaps the most worrying for the Tories is the Mail on the NHS and its question on the linkage to the tax hike. If that is the start of a campaign it could cause real political damage. I still think that Truss, if indeed it is her, will get a boost when she arrives at Number 10 if only because Johnson is out of the way. He’s been a big drag on the party ever since the revelations emerged of…

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Powerful from Beto O’Rourke

Powerful from Beto O’Rourke

Beto, who came to prominence in the 2018 midterms, is running for the Governorship of Texas and I just wonder if he could go for the White House at the 2024 elections. I’ve just put £20 on him for the Democrat nomination WH2024 nomination at180/1 with Betfair. There’s no doubt that he’s getting a lot of coverage with the above incident. Mike Smithson

Is it time for the Redwall Tory MPs to panic?

Is it time for the Redwall Tory MPs to panic?

Just imagine you are one of those Tory MPs who came to Westminster as a result of gains made at the last general election. It is likely that when you put yourself forward to be the candidate in a constituency that always went Labour you really had no thought that victory was possible. But then the huge upheaval of the December 2019 election came about and you found yourself an MP with all the changes in your life that meant….

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The leadership betting remains stable in spite of developments

The leadership betting remains stable in spite of developments

The above betting chart shows just how stable the betting has become with Truss barely moving off a 90% chance since the start of the month. Although the race is occupying so much media attention very littie is happening that is going to prevent the now gaffe-prone Truss from being made leader and getting the call from the Palace on September 6th. At the moment she is running a terrible campaign with U-turn after U-turn saying one thing one day…

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Truss now favourite to be PM after next election

Truss now favourite to be PM after next election

Can she really lead the Tories to another majority? On this I think that punters have got this wrong because the challenge facing the Tories at the next election is so great that it is hard to see how they can stay in power unless they secure an overall majority. Apart from the DUP there is no other significant grouping in UK politics to which the Tories are going to be able to link in the event that they don’t…

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The flaw in Liz’s reliance on tax cuts

The flaw in Liz’s reliance on tax cuts

Fewer than 60% pay income tax Over the past week the big debate in the Tory leadership contest has been on the best way of helping families in the face of the huge energy price increases that are due in the autumn. Liz Truss has been very firm about there being no “handouts” and that people will be helped by her plan to cut taxes almost as soon as she becomes PM. The big problem for her is that fewer…

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LAB lead in Redwall seats now up to 15%

LAB lead in Redwall seats now up to 15%

These were the seats, of course, where Johnson’s Tories made so much progress at GE2019 and played a big part in giving him what amounted to a landslide majority. That, of course, was when Corbyn was the LAB leader and he was a huge negative for the main opposition party. In the forty ‘Red Wall’ seats that were polled, the Tories won all in 2019 but Hartlepool (which was won in a subsequent parliamentary by-election) with 46.7% of the vote…

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The Dems now favourites for the US Senate

The Dems now favourites for the US Senate

We are not long off now the US Midterm elections in November when the expectation is that the Democrats will lose control of the House but possibly improve their position in the Senate. At the moment this is split 50:50 with the Vice President having the casting vote. As I noted here last week Betfair has a very different way of defining this market than Smarkets and includes an option for it to come out at 50:50 once again. It…

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