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Author: Mike Smithson

Sunak back again as favourite in the next PM betting

Sunak back again as favourite in the next PM betting

Having bet on Sunak for next PM in November 2019 at 250/1 Ladbrokes this is a market I follow closely and if it comes up my £20 wager will be my biggest ever political betting win. It will outdo the £4,300 I made on the LDs in the June Chesham & Amersham by-election. Interesting that the big betting winner on this market this week has been Liz Truss who is now clear third favourite to succeed BoJo. The big question…

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Meeks and Rentoul argue over Davey’s “No deals with CON”

Meeks and Rentoul argue over Davey’s “No deals with CON”

Interesting argument this lunchtime between former PBer, Alastair Meeks and John Rentoul of the Independent. Was Ed Davey right in his FT piece today to rule out any deal that would keep a Tory government in power. The Meeks view is essentially that the way Johnson is current;y running the country is in a manner that is more alien to LD values than it is to LAB ones. Rentoul’s argument is that by ruling out one side Davey could be…

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Punters see WH2024 as a re-run of WH2020 – Biden v Trump

Punters see WH2024 as a re-run of WH2020 – Biden v Trump

In spite of their ages, Trump’s 75 and Biden 78, the two men who were their party’s nominees last time continue to head the betting for WH2024. Taking them one by one I reckon Biden has to operate as if it is certain that he’ll seek re-election unless he could appear a lame duck. Clearly everything depends on his health but if it holds he looks as though he will go for a second term. I’m not so certain about…

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Can Starmer get a conference boost?

Can Starmer get a conference boost?

Betting on the end month LAB poll average One of the innovative betting markets that Smarkets has up is in the chart above. What will LAB’s polling average be at the end of the month? These are the market rules: This market relates to the Labour Party’s UK parliament polling average on 30 September 2021, according to Politico’s UK poll of polls . A readout of the Labour Party’s most recent polling average (using the ‘Kalman Smooth’ display, to the…

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Was the CONHome members’ survey the driver of the re-shuffle?

Was the CONHome members’ survey the driver of the re-shuffle?

And Truss should be taken seriously as a possible “Next PM” One of the features of ConHome, which was founded a few months after PB in 2004, has been its monthly survey of party members and the publication of its league table with net satisfaction levels for Cabinet members. It is surely not a coincidence that the reshuffle winners and losers could have been predicted from the latest survey which was published by the site on September 5th. Three of…

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Could Raab be in trouble at Esher and Walton?

Could Raab be in trouble at Esher and Walton?

Having lived and brought up my family in the neighbouring constituency of Twickenham Dominic Raab’s seat of Esher and Walton is one I know well and where the LDs have hopes of making a gain whenever the general election happens. At GE2019, as the Wikipedia panel above shows, they came close last time and Raab would have lost if Labour voters had backed the LD. There are four factors that are central when looking at LD prospects in a particular…

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Starmer is back as favourite for next PM

Starmer is back as favourite for next PM

There’s been a change in the next PM betting with Starmer back as favourite though only rated a 21% chance. What this market really shows, I’d suggest, is the growing certainty that Johnson will stay the course and lead the Tories into the next election. Sunak only gets favoured here when his boss appears in trouble – which is not happening at the moment. This is a market where it could be years, even a decade, before you could see…

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